For the last two years, since the beginning of the credit crisis, so called experts have been concerned with when is the right time to buy cheap stocks again. However, one must never forget that the only definition to ‘cheap’ these experts have is that yesterday it was more expensive (and you pay them a lot for this knowledge ). So if history is of any use, let’s check what we can learn from it
• In 1929 crash, stock prices remained reasonably steady for about a year, until November, 1930. Then stock prices kept falling until 1942, with a major second crash in 1937.
• Stock prices recovered from 1942-1966. They didn't return to their 1929 high until 1954.
• During the crash the market lost nearly 90% of it’s value.
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• From 1990 the Nikkei crashed for 13 years, and lost 75% of it’s value
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• In 2000 The Nasdaq crash, it took the market 2.5 years before it stopped falling. During the time the market lost nearly 75% of it’s value
Without trying to forecast the market, history teaches us that cheap doesn’t mean that it will not get much cheaper. So don’t put your faith in experts. Whatever they tell you, it’s your own judgment you should follow.
If you don’t know, stay out of the market, you don’t have to be there.
I should kill you Ranfuchs! I wrote a long, and may I add, very insightful comment on your previous post (the one with question marks instead of apostrophes) and you deleted it!!!
Grrrr
So just to cut long story short. I agree with this. Bonds, shares and money only have nominal value which is the product of market consensus. THey don't carry any real value (as land does) and they are very fluid and relative. Building wealth on them alone has been a mistake of a greedy bunch of economic fly-by-nights. As much as they may have REPRESENTED something yesterday when they had some backing, now they are as good as loo paper. I hate monetarism. There was much more to my post but I forgot it all now.